Wednesday, September 17, 2008

'POP' ,goes the big red balloon....

I know three-year-old who does'nt like balloons . Well , maybe she is just wary of balloons . ''Papa , can we put the balloon outside " she says . She does'nt know much about Science or Physics and she has'nt really read many books on Politics or Economics .She just knows from all her years of vast experience that balloons have a tendancy to go 'POP' without much warning and give little people a great fright . Sometimes balloons lie in a corner and quietly disappear , but usually they go 'POP'.

There are some politicians and economists who have the 'savvy' of a three-year-old but it seems to me that most of them appeared to be completely oblivious to the growing threat of our housing balloon . They allowed a normal demand for 'a roof over our heads ' , that occurrs in all societies , to become the complete basis of our economy .
Landowners , developers , builders and indirectly national and local politicians benefitted from a deliberate Government policy to encourage a sunami of national HOME-building . Apart trom tax incentives , softening of Planning Permission requirements , regular meetings with the 'building lobby 'every effort possible was made by the powers- that- be ,to smooth the path of this lobby .
Queues formed at the launch of new phases of property developments , sometimes overnight , to buy grossly overpriced HOMES . Because of low European bank rates , money was easily available .These carefully controlled queues found that Phase 1 was sold out fairly quickly and the disappointed ones were introduced to Phase 2 . If any hopeful buyer had the nerve to ask "Whats the difference between Phase 1 and Phase 2 ?",they were informed arrogantly..."about TWENTY GRAND !".
About two years ago when some economists and some independent property experts began to suggest that , just maybe , some of these devalopments were overpriced and there was a possibility , just a possibility...mind , of a problem of negative equity 'down the road ', the incestous 'building lobby', which also included BIG SHOTS from the BIG BANKS , jumped in to ridicule the "nay sayers " as they were called . Our 'fundamentals' were sound , said they...how unpatriotic of these 'prophets of doom ' who are trying to 'talk diown ' our booming economy.Banks were allowed to introduce 100% or even 100% plus mortgages , they were allowed to spread mortgages over 40 years and to top it all off in case anyone might still think that the housing-balloon was overinflating , the spin doctors from the banks and government started to suggest that there would , at worst , be a 'soft landing'. Then our Tasoiseach (now former -Taoiseach ) , made comments such as ' these nay sayers who are talking down the economy should go off and commit suicide , that "If you had bought your houses last year they would be worth at least 10% more this year ", thereby pouring petrol on a bonfire .... puffing up further an already overinflated balloon .
So the balloon did not just ebb away quietly in a corner , it went 'POP' as my three -year-old grandaughter told us all that it would.....

3 comments:

Rob said...

a nice analogy...is that Sophiestry, or Ambernomics?

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Actually i think they call it rickybobology.

Ye, nice analogy pops. Keep up the sterling work.... you should be on the indo. payroll at this rate